MARKET IN CONFIRMED RALLY
Last night (Thursday), All 3 indexes followed through on their rally attempt as stocks increased ON HIGH VOLUME (26% above the average).
The Nasdaq increased 3%, The S&P 500 increased 2.2% (its biggest one day gain since Oct 23) and the Dow gained 2%. This marks a FOLLOW THROUGH for the market on Day 12 of a rally try started June 14. This is a sign that PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS are back in BUYING HEAVILY. On IBD’s ‘The Big Picture’, market outlook is back to ‘Confirmed Rally’. If you look at the S&P 500 chart (3 month), you can see last night that the index broke through the resistance line it has been forming over the last few days on high volume. The reason is because the FED increased rates by 0.25% to 5.25% as expected, thus clearing the uncertainty that has built up. The FED also hinted that growth is moderate and rates will remain put for now.
So what does all this mean?
1) A follow through does not guarantee a bull run. There have been times in the past when after follow through, the market eventually went nowhere. Having said that, a major bull run has always been preceded by a follow though after a downturn.
2) This does not mean that stocks & the index will not go down. Remember that stocks go up and down ALL THE TIME. A confirmed rally merely says that the index will trend upwards (each high will be higher, and each low will be lower)
=> This is the time to get ready to BUY those top rated momentum stocks that are ready to break out from their bases that have formed over the last 2 months!
Here are some of the purchases I made recently for your reference.
1) JEL (value stock on SGX) at $0.23
– This is a core holding on wallstraits.com. Curtis is betting the whole ranch on this one counter. I held it before and sold it at a nice profit at $0.29. Now it is back to $0.23, so I picked it up again. My only concern is that although sales and profits are surging, profit margins have been decling. Usually this is a bad sign as it shows that competitive advantage is being eroded. However, I believe that it is short term and margins will grow healthily this year. However, because of this one uncertainty, I am only placing a small investment in this.
2) HTL (value stock on SGX) at ) $1.10
I added a few more HTL lots to my present portfolio as I think the price at this level is pretty attractive . Way undervalued. In fact, last quarter, sales, profits and cash flow increased very well. So, there is no reason for this stock to be so undervalued.
3) Bought only a few lots of S&P 500 CFD’s at 1262.50 last night because I did not expect the index to take off so fast. Only caught it when it was halfway through the rally. Will consider buying some more when prices eases more down to 1240-1250 range. Remember that prices will always take a breather when market shoots up to fast because of profit taking and short tem consolidation.
“…stocks go up and down ALL THE TIME” Well said Adam! Recognizing this fact, investor should have the attitude of the wind surfers, cruising up and down the titanic waves.
I managed to catch LAS VEGAS SAND (LVS) at US$70.19 on Thursday (Fortunately no World Cup matches that evening. Or else, how to concentrate on trading?).
Have been watching this LVS closely since it form a flat base in late March 06. Somehow, it flew below my radar screen when our government announced the casino project to be awarded to this company. But the price did not move up much, probably due to the uncertainty hovering the overall market.
Now, I caught this one at the right pivot point and its looks set to be my big winner, if the market continue its uptrend.
May the force be with us! 🙂
PS: I like to thank you for the excellent new book “Secrets of Self-Made Millionaires”. I am particularly impressed with the chapter about internet business. It motivates me to try one online business. I am sure many Singaporean would greatly benefit from your work. Thank you once again!
Hi Adam,
Agree with the concepts presented in your latest book.
However, you did not mention anything about Options Trading. Is this a viable wealth instrument or would you know of anyone who had done this well (Options) to the level of Warren Buffett as in the stock market.
Regards, Jaz
Adam,
Greetings from the USA. First time visitor — heard many great things about you. I’m grabbing one of your SMM special offers, because I’d be a FOOL not to! Just a quick editorial comment, because I’m a bit of a jerk that notices little mistakes (even though they have absolutely NO effect on actual content). You mention above “A confirmed rally merely says that the index will trend upwards (each high will be higher, and each low will be lower).” As I KNOW you know, when an index is trending upward, each high is higher, and each LOW is higher, as well. Anyway, thanks for the special offer and the great site. I plan on being a regular visitor…Sorry about being an editorial jerk!
Adam,
First congratulations for your book. I usually avoid those “millionaire” books as i find it often cliche and overdone. However, i’ve bought yours after reading a few pages because it’s clear, to the point ,entertaining and takes the reader seriously (actually another point is that i was really curious in reading this type of book written by a singaporean). I have enjoyed reading more of it and most importantly there is a feeling that you have a genuine interest in helping people think more about their finance which is very welcome.
While reading this post, i have been wondering which means you are investing the stock markets both locally and internationally. Are you using an online stock broker? and if so do you have any recommandation on which are the ones to use? Or are you using another method? It’s more out of curiousity for the moment as i don’t have enough knowledge to confidently invest in the stock market yet.
Regards, Loic